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APK guide
Service addressDecimal odds: implied probability is not a promised result
Read decimal odds without treating the implied percentage as a promised result. Worked examples separate returns, five-bet outcomes and overround.
Odds of 5.00 do not promise one win in your next five bets. The calculation 1 ÷ 5.00 = 20% describes the quoted price. It is neither a record of results nor proof of the event’s true chance. This companion to the A80 sports guide shows where those meanings diverge.
Calculate the return and the percentage separately
Smarkets’ odds explanation gives decimal return as stake multiplied by odds, including the original stake. The reciprocal expresses the price-implied probability.
| Odds | Gross return on a win | Profit after the stake | 1 ÷ odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 12,500 | 2,500 | 80% |
| 2.00 | 20,000 | 10,000 | 50% |
| 5.00 | 50,000 | 40,000 | 20% |
| 10.00 | 100,000 | 90,000 | 10% |
A full loss returns zero and loses the 10,000-kyat stake. These teaching examples exclude fees, taxes, voids, partial wins or losses and bonus conditions. Any of those changes requires a separate settlement calculation.
Put five bets at 5.00 into a ledger
Suppose five separate bets each cost 10,000 kyat and all have odds of 5.00. Total stakes are 50,000 kyat; each win returns 50,000 kyat. The following are alternative hypothetical outcomes, not predictions of how often you will win.
| Wins | Total returned | Net after 50,000 in stakes |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | −50,000 |
| 1 | 50,000 | 0 |
| 2 | 100,000 | +50,000 |
The one-win row breaks even. Under these simplified full-win/full-loss assumptions, 20% is the break-even win rate at that price. It does not follow that four losses make the fifth bet a winner. A result has no obligation to repair the earlier ledger.
A complete three-way market can total more than 100%
Take a hypothetical home/draw/away market at 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60. All three prices must come from the same market and snapshot, with matching settlement periods. The outcomes must be mutually exclusive and collectively cover that market. Do not combine different time periods or screenshots, or omit the draw.
| Hypothetical outcome | Odds | Implied percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 47.6190% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 29.4118% |
| Away | 3.60 | 27.7778% |
| Total | — | About 104.8086% |
The excess above 100% is about 4.8086 percentage points of overround. Smarkets’ bookmaker-margin guide describes the inclusion of margin in prices. The three prices and calculations here are our own hypothetical example.
That 4.8086 does not mean every stake automatically loses that percentage. Your selected outcome, its actual chance and the settlement conditions matter. The market total alone cannot establish your expected loss.
Scaling back to 100% still does not reveal the true chances
Divide each implied percentage by 104.8086 and multiply by 100. The resulting shares are approximately 45.4343%, 28.0624% and 26.5033%. They sum to 100%. This proportional normalization assumes margin can be removed in the same proportion from every selection. It is a modelling choice, not a measurement of either team’s ability. A tidy total is not evidence of an accurate forecast.
Four checks for an odds ledger
- Confirm the odds are decimal and establish whether the displayed winning return includes the stake.
- Keep gross return and net profit after stakes in separate columns.
- When adding implied percentages, use a complete market with the same period and timestamp.
- Check whether “20% implied by the price” has accidentally become “one guaranteed win in five”.
Understanding the calculation does not guarantee a profit. This is a reading guide, not a selection tip. Find related explainers in A80 news and guides.
Reviewed 4 October 2026. The primary pages were read directly and the hypothetical arithmetic checked separately. No live market, account or bet was tested. Myanmar illustrations accompany both language editions; their captions explain the same worked examples.